File photo of Mullah Baradar Akhund, center, with a group of the Taliban
A generation of Afghans who grew up without Taliban rule are unlikely to submit easily to the mores of an emirate harkening back to the 1990s
The Afghan generation that was born and grew into adults during the 20 years of life under a U.S.-supported government cannot be expected to submit easily to the Taliban and their “emirate” in 2021. What was acceptable under the government of Mullah Umar is today no longer acceptable to Afghans, in general, and the non-Pashtun who make up 70 percent of Afghanistan.
Kabul’s neighboring states, too, can’t take the Taliban anymore. Iran and Pakistan, jointly hosting over 6 million Afghan refugees the Taliban had forced to migrate, are no longer willing to see the group repeat its medieval style of governance. Add to that the Central Asian states—protected by Russia—and China, some of whose Uighur Muslims have been forced to “Talibanize”, and you have an unhappy neighborhood ready to oppose the re-Talibanization of Afghanistan. One must also calculate the extent to which the people of Afghanistan were transformed during 20 years of America’s “liberal” rule, affecting narrow tribalism and treatment of women in particular. What the world has not measured is the extent to which the common man in Afghanistan has been rendered “unfit” for Talibanization.
Pace of change in Afghanistan
How Afghanistan changed after 9/11 was charted by Farrukh Saleem in daily The News on Aug. 22: “In 2005, 22 percent of the Afghan population had access to electricity. The number has now grown to 97.7 percent of the population (Source: The World Bank). Twenty years ago, Kabul used to get roughly three hours of electricity a day. Since 2002, more than $4 billion have been spent on improving Afghanistan’s power infrastructure. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has played a crucial role. ADB pumped in $40 million to build a transmission line from Pul-e-Khumri north of Kabul to Uzbekistan. Another $56 million from ADB links Afghanistan and Tajikistan.
“Afghanistan now imports more than 670MW of electricity from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Iran for $280 million a year. Most residents of Kabul now have access to 24-hour electricity. Between 2006 and 2019, four power plants were commissioned—Istalif, Salma, Tarakhil and Bayat. Between 2012 and 2019, four solar powered projects came online—Bamyan, West Herat, Kabul and Kandahar.
“In 2001, Afghanistan had only 50 miles of paved roads. Over the past 20 years, $3 billion were spent on roads. National Highway 1, or the Ring Road, is a 2,000km two-lane road network circulating inside Afghanistan, connecting Kabul, Maidan, Ghazni, Kandahar Delaram, Herat, Maymana, Sheberghan, Mazar Sharif, Pul-e-Khumri and back to Kabul. National Highway 1 has extensions that also connect Jalabad, Bamyan, Khost, Lashkargah, Zarank, Farah, Islam Qala, Torghunid and Kunduz.”
Similarly, Vappala Balachandran has written for think-tank Atlantic Council on the progress in Afghanistan: “India invested heavily in a peaceful Afghanistan.” Quoting External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, he said that “no part of Afghanistan” had remained untouched by the 400-plus projects that India undertook in all 34 of Afghanistan’s provinces. “Over 20 years, India spent more than $3 billion on projects—from roads, dams, and electricity-transmission capacity to schools and hospitals—in Afghanistan,” he cited the Indian Express as reporting. “The highway from Zaranj to Delaram was inaugurated by President Hamid Karzai and India’s then External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee in January 2009. (The only ‘contribution’ the Taliban made was by killing six Indian workers and 129 Afghans in terrorist attacks while they worked on the highway project.) Afghanistan’s new parliament building, built by India, was inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2015.”
What may be in the offing
But is Afghanistan now standing on the edge of a cliff that will send it hurtling down? Columnist Fahd Husain, writing in daily Dawn, foresees a ‘best-case’ scenario: “In this scenario, the following could take place: (1) Taliban form an inclusive government that includes leaders from the former Northern Alliance who may also have been part of the Ashraf Ghani regime, as well as representatives from all major ethnic groups; (2) this government is accorded recognition by the international community; (3) with all rivals joined in the government, fighting comes to an end and there is finally peace in the country after decades of conflict; (4) international pressure, and need for assistance, moderates the Taliban government to a degree of acceptable normalcy and the country begins to inch towards the global mainstream; (5) China and Russia as the two largest regional powers enhance their diplomatic and economic footprint inside Afghanistan, with investment leading to greater inter-regional trade and infrastructure connectivity. Prospects brighten for linkages between Central Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran with the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative spinning off prosperity via Afghanistan.”
American journalist Michael Tomasky reacted to the Afghan situation in The New Republic earlier in the year, laying out the retreat of the Western world and the U.S. in particular: “The fate of Afghanistan, it saddens me to say, isn’t up to us either. It’s up to the people of Afghanistan. It sickens me to see the Taliban take over, and we may need to step in now and do something to shore up the Afghan military for a short time. But here’s the unalloyed truth: We could stay another 20 years, or 40, or 120, and nothing would change. And finally, let us be honest with ourselves: The United States of America is no longer a country that can afford the luxury, if that’s the right word, of promoting democracy abroad. Our first task is to preserve it here at home, where it is under such an extremely serious threat. The best way to show the rest of the world that we treasure democracy is to make sure it triumphs within our own borders. We’d better tend that garden first.”
Bad news from Panjshir
With the West all but washing its hands of the present situation in Afghanistan, it is up to the neighbors to do the fixing. But the neighborhood may get divided due to its own contradictions. A disenchanted Pakistan wants Kabul to capture and surrender the Pakistani Taliban who are wanted for their terrorist action in Pakistan. But the Taliban in Kabul are focused on the northeastern province of Panjshir where Pakistan’s most virulent enemy, former vice president Amrullah Saleh, has taken refuge with Ahmad Massoud, the son of the late Tajik leader Ahmad Shah Massoud. Saleh’s message to the Taliban gives us an idea of where things will go in Afghanistan in the coming days.
He said that he would “under no circumstances bow” to the Taliban and will continue to fight. “I will never, ever and under no circumstances bow to the Taliban terrorists. I will never betray the soul and legacy of my hero Ahmad Shah Massoud, the commander, the legend and the guide. I won’t disappoint millions who listened to me. I will never be under one ceiling with Taliban. NEVER.” This is, unsurprisingly, in contrast to the Taliban who claim the situation in Panjshir can be resolved ‘within hours’ if it comes to a full-on conflict.
Saleh is also unlikely to b